CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju has said that this Bitcoin bull market will result in a 3x to 5x increase, as the overall market size is larger than before, along with institutional holdings growing in Bitcoin.
Ju’s projection does not contain a price target for Bitcoin, and it is unclear when the 3-5x figure starts. However, Ju seems to be discussing the potential magnitude of the next cycle rather than a 3-5x increase from Bitcoin’s current price, which is around $86,400.
The thesis started to change. Previous Bitcoin cycles started from such small valuations that relatively little money could make a very large difference in price. Bitcoin’s market capitalization is now around $1.75 trillion and so would require a lot more capital.
The on-chain profitability is another pillar of his perspective. Ju pointed to Bitcoin’s MVRV, the market capitalization to the realized capitalization ratio.
According to his model, since MVRV has remained over one this cycle, Bitcoin’s market value has never dropped below the aggregate on-chain cost basis of its holders, even during the depth of major corrections.
Ju also pointed to the PnL Index from CryptoQuant, which showed cycle tops and bottoms becoming less pronounced, and bottoms forming at higher aggregate holder profitability than in previous cycles.
Its 365-day moving average, however, is showing what he described as a meaningful inflection, although on-chain metrics are not a guarantee of future price movement.
Realized capitalization is another part of this argument, where coins are valued at the price last paid for each of them. Ju said its continued growth indicates money is still coming in, but each new dollar has a less important price movement than it would have in earlier cycles.
Whale activity is also considered; according to Ju, early large holders have stopped selling. Major futures traders also began increasing their long positions near the recent low.
It also relies on CryptoQuant’s classification of wallets and method of measuring derivatives. This does not mean that every long-term whale stopped distributing Bitcoin.
Ju’s wider thesis requires institutional participation. In the US, spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury buyers have offered straightforward access to large positions.
Ju argues that this creates a trade-off: a larger capital base would make another 10x+ parabolic move harder, but would also make another one of these roughly 80% bear-market collapses less likely.
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Bitcoin has since recovered to above $86,000, from about $75,600 on Sept. 15. Ju’s latest comment is a sharp difference from a few months earlier, when he said that bearish conditions could last into early 2027.
His current thesis, however, is that, as the market matures, increasing realized capital, holder profitability, and institutional ownership will compress both the upside and downside extremes.
