SpaceX Stock Rises as Morgan Stanley Backs $300 Target

Morgan Stanley maintains a $300 per share price target for SpaceX, with analyst Adam Jonas reaffirming the figure and an Overweight rating in a Sunday note. SpaceX shares finished at $171.09 on October 5 following a 7.63% gain, indicating that the $300 target represents approximately 75% upside from that level. This evaluation from Morgan Stanley emerged around the same time Elon Musk acknowledged ongoing discussions between SpaceX and TSMC concerning the Terafab semiconductor project.

Also Read: SpaceX Stock Forecast: Needham Sees $250, Bernstein $248, BofA $235

SpaceX Stock Target, $300 Forecast and TSMC Talks Explained

During overnight trading, SpaceX shares were valued at $172.21 after fluctuating between a low of $158.62 and a high of $172.47 during the session. Trading volume reached roughly 134.4 million shares, notably higher than the 91.3 million average. The $300 target surpasses both the consensus one-year projection of $227.44 and the 52-week peak of $225.64.

Why Morgan Stanley Keeps Its SpaceX Stock Target At $300

Jonas titled his report “SPCX $159: Cheap and Getting Cheaper.” At the $159 mark, he estimated the valuation at roughly 30 times projected 2028 EV/EBIT, compared to about 16 times for mega-cap artificial intelligence leaders. When adjusted for growth, that ratio falls to roughly 0.3 times, sitting about 40% below the median of peer companies.

Adam Jonas said:

“We think that over the next few weeks (ahead of Starship Flight 15), investors can take advantage of a unique opportunity to buy shares that look unusually cheap.”

The financial institution attributes $127 per share to the Space and Connectivity divisions, assigning the remaining $32 per share to artificial intelligence at a $159 share price. This disparity forms the core of Morgan Stanley’s rationale, meaning the $300 price target relies heavily on the artificial intelligence segment meeting expectations.

SpaceX TSMC Talks Bring A New Chip Angle

On October 3, Musk verified via X that Terafab—a chip manufacturing initiative supported by both SpaceX and Tesla—is engaged in preliminary talks with TSMC. The proposed facility would manufacture semiconductors for SpaceX, Tesla, and xAI.

Elon Musk had this to say:

“Just discussions, but something may come of it.”

At present, no formal agreements, schedules, or financial figures have been established, and TSMC has withheld comment. Consequently, the dialogue between SpaceX and TSMC functions more as an additional potential benefit than a core requirement for the $300 stock objective.

Starship Flight 15 Is The Next Big Test

Jonas stated:

“We believe future AI product releases, Starship progress, and additional neocloud contracts showing continued pricing around $30-50/watt are all upside-skewed catalysts that can push the stock closer to our $300/share price target.”

Upcoming milestones include Starship Flight 15 slated for late October or early November, with Jonas noting that a successful booster capture could serve as the most significant positive catalyst since the company’s public offering. Additionally, third-quarter financial results are anticipated around November 3. Each of these developments has the potential to influence the trajectory of the stock target. Because trailing earnings per share remain at -$1.10, the $300 projection depends on future profitability materializing over the coming years. Meanwhile, TD Cowen analyst John Blackledge initiated coverage with a Buy recommendation and a $200 target, establishing a more conservative benchmark within the broader valuation debate. For observers tracking Morgan Stanley’s perspective, upcoming Starship milestones and artificial intelligence agreements must execute on time, given that share values remain highly sensitive to flight test outcomes.